The Gambler’s Fallacy:  Logic vs. Feelings at The Casino Game processThe eternal question for any player is as follows: what to choose — logic vs. feelings? What should we rely on when making a decision? To begin with we must figure out when our decision is really logical and when we just think it is. Here is a simple example. You are playing roulette and for eleven times in a row the ball falls out on “black” numbers. All of our inner experience literally screams that now, at the twelfth time, "red" must surely be the winner.

Does this make sense? In fact, it doesn’t, because at each spin the probability of falling out a red or a black number is the same, and it is equal to about 50% (approximately, because there is still a zero and double zero in some roulette versions). So the results of previous spins have no effect on this probability. That’s how our feelings try to deceive us and to seem logical decisions for us.


Even the famous sci-fi movies reflect this contradiction. When Luke Skywalker goes to blow up the Death Star, he has only one chance to get it right - to drop the only bomb in the only right place at the only right time. So what does he do? He shuts down the instruments and relies entirely on his own senses, which brings the mission victory. However, he's a Jedi, it's easier for him.

The hero of the other series, Spock from Star Trek, is driven solely by logic and calculation in all his actions. But he also understands the appeal of gambling when he says that there is a certain joy in taking a risk.

The Monaco Example

This case is officially registered and became a real sensation. On August 18, 1913, in a casino in Monaco, the roulette wheel went black 26 times in a row. By the time the 27th time it finally fell red, the casino-goers were in a frenzy, and the bets on red were already a decent amount. The casino profited handsomely that night. For some reasons, gamblers decided that such a consequence should have happened again but with the red sectors, so they placed disproportionately on red. That's how the excited feelings drown out the voice of reason.

By the way, the probability of 26 consecutive times black is 136,823,184 to one. As you can see, nothing is impossible.

We've Got Chemistry

From the point of view of logic, gambling makes no sense at all and is even harmful. But feelings do not allow us to fully trust the voice of reason, constantly clouding our head with thoughts of possible winnings. Feelings do not care what the probability of winning is, it is enough that the probability exists. Each person tends to think they are special and believe that they will definitely be lucky in the game.

Serious About Poker

In terms of the confrontation of feelings and reason, poker is a unique game. On the one hand, there is a great demand for logic, a good memory, and the ability to analyze the situation at the table. On the other hand, an experienced poker player can gain a lot of useful information thanks to his feelings and their manifestations, bluffing and influences thus his opponents.

The ability to observe your co-players and draw the right conclusions is one of the most valuable things in poker.

Keep It Fun

However, a person doesn't have to be serious and logical all the time. Let the robots and computers be like that, but we, humans, have the right to show our feelings. In Canada, anyone can gamble and get the most important thing — the pleasure and fun of the process. Just don't get too carried away, and everything will be fine.

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